Same Game Parlay Guaranteed Profit? (New Tool Suggestion)

aaronbaldwin611

$100 Bonus Bet for Placing $100 in Same Game Parlay's. From your experience, is this a common or uncommon offer from bookmakers? @carlos As this would affect the benefit of my suggested tool designed for this purpose.

From what I've seen, it's very difficult to profit from Same Game Parlay bonuses. But I've done the math to calculate whether I could make Guaranteed profit through a $100 Matched Bonus Bet on any SGP bets. And through my calculations, it seems like this is entirely possible to profit from. (these are initial profit numbers in which I did no further research to find the most optimal odds)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13JSnv-6zmxsGfYpK9r3uJfMl5Piz8h80etV9pKX10Fw/edit?usp=sharing (link to view sheet)

Looking for any feedback here, as I want to ensure that I'm not missing any important details that would result in a profit loss. However, I think that if this is a common offer, a tool could be created to find the best odds across all sites.

If the offer requires only 2 legs to the parlay, it's possible to create 3 bets in which 1 bet will always win. If this data can be pulled from each bookmaker, I would suggest a tool that compares the following data:

Under Bet
Over Bet
Team A Win
Team B Win
Under + Team A Win Parlay
Under + Team B Win Parlay
Over + Team A Win Parlay
Over + Team B Win Parlay

Using the possible bet combinations: (Parlay Bet Required for Promotion Bookmaker)

Under + Team A Win | Under + Team B Win | Over
Over + Team A Win | Over + Team B Win | Under
Team A Win + Under | Team A Win + Over | Team B Win
Team B Win + Under | Team B Win + Over | Team A Win

My initial thoughts for why this wouldn't be that useful:

If the offer requires 3+ legs on the SGP
If the offer requires high minimum odds
If an offer only rewards the bonus bet when the SGP is lost
If we're unable to pull parlay odds data from sites.

More Offer Details for Context:

carlos

@aaronbaldwin611 SGP indeed are very difficult to approach for matched betting purposes, since you need both selections on it to happen in order for it to win. This means that for SGP with 2 markets in it (of 2 results each), you need to cover it with 2 different bets, as you already suggested. This, most of the time, leaves you with a huge qualifying loss, that almost always is higher than what you would get as a bonus, so it would not be profitable. This offer you are showing is actually uncommon. Most bookies what they offer is a small profit boost for 3 legs SGP.
Another issue is, as already noted, that not always these odds are available on the site. Only after you create the SGP, so you would have to do the research manually until you find all the odds. Now, for 3 legs SGP is even worse.

In other countries there is an easier way to do this with a 2 way calculator (as the one we have), with an exchange that offers combined markets as a lay bet or bookmakers that offer the combination also as a kind of lay bet, but in the US this is not available yet.

aaronbaldwin611

Gotcha. Thank for for the detailed response, I appreciate it :folded_hands: