How many bets do I need before judging my results?
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Hundreds. After 10 bets luck dominates, after 50 it still has a big say, and even after 100 your result can sit far from what was expected.
The advantage shows through repetition: 1,000 bets of $10 at an average 5% EV is $10,000 staked with an expected profit of about $500. The real figure will be higher or lower because of variance, but the bigger the sample, the closer it should get.
So don't judge ValueBet on a day, a weekend or any short spell.
Read more: Variance and Long-Term Results
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