Guide 4 • Refund Strategy


I'm trying to understand the Refund method of getting money.
Let's keep the numbers of the bet equal so that there is some clarity.
Place Bet @ A (100% freebet refund guarantee) = $100
Place Bet @ B to = $100Total Invested so far: $200
The guide says if A wins, that's it! But if A Wins another $100, now we have $200 to withdraw, but have lost $100 @ B, so we are now equal. That doesn't seem like I'm walking away ahead.
If place B wins, I have the $200, but now I also have $100 of freebets to do a back to back bet with, and can enter again and get the extra $100.
So it seems like there's an extra step, but that I'm really only winning when my B bet wins, and A bet with the refund loses. What am I missing?

@eawitkowski Posted the same thing in a different thread so moving that here since I'm seeing this:
@carlos I'm looking at https://www.ninjabet.com/welcomebetrivers2 and wondered why it's recommended to place a 2nd Back Bet on the initial $500 bet?
EDIT: I forgot here that you only get winnings from the bonus bets. Placing a 2nd backbed on the initial $500 bet is to mitigate the $500 that is lost from the initial bet losing, and only the bonus bet's winning being redeemable.

This post is deleted! 
@eawitkowski I answered your email.

@aaronbaldwin611 you cover the 1st to mitigate the loss in case you lose on betrivers. Then you receive the refund a generate a profit from there.
Instead, if you win directly on betrivers, you will get your profit directly there, since the bet you cover it with, it's not a full cover. just a partial one. 
@carlos Makes sense, thanks for the reply! I initially misunderstood that the first $500 bet technically isn't risk free, since you receive only the winnings from the 2nd bet if you lose the first one. (after losing if you bet $500 with the free bet on a +125, I only profit $125 after $500 from the initial investment, and that's not counting the loss from the second back bet) I managed to adjust the bet I made so now I'm not losing money, but only have a chance at making anything if the initial bet wins. Definitely some oversight from me and pulled the trigger too quick but all good now.

Since I too have reached the stage of working on Refund Welcome offers, and posted in the general forum about my first attempt with Bet365 being a general debacle, I thought I would comment over here, too.
I have setup my second Refund offer with BetFred (Up to $105 if your first bet loses). That too has been a bit of a fiasco, but only because BetFred has the offer up on their website right now (Jan 5 2024) but the fine print in the terms say the promotion ended Dec 31 2023. However, I did contact their customer support, they acknowledged the screwup on their part, and said they will be crediting the $105 free bet to my account. Will see how long THAT takes.
@carlos I think for me and perhaps a few others, is that the general confusion over refund bet strategy is in part due to the language used in your guide:
"3. Refund
When the event ends:
If the BACK BET 1 wins, great! You have nothing else to do and you will have your profit in your Bookmaker 1 account."Particularly, the phrase "have your profit in your BM1 account." Except, there is no profit to be had if BB1 wins, and it will be a small loss. From NinjaBet's example in "2. Place the Qualifying Bet"
BB1 $100
BB2 $779.82
Total Wagered $879.82If BB1 wins, you lose. $850  $879.82 for a loss of $29.82.
Since the odds on BB1 winning are usually quite long (400 or longer, right?) that is not likely to happen, but it CAN happen.Therefore, I would have liked to have that more explicitly stated in the refund strategy guide. Something like:
 Refund
When the event ends:
If the BACK BET 1 wins, that probably means you have lost money, similar to other qualifying real money bets. To mitigate the size of that unlikely but very possible loss, it is crucial that you place the BACK BET 2 as you would for a real money bet.
Otherwise, have really enjoyed my first week with NinjaBet, and looking forward to a great and profitable 2024.
 Refund

@KansaiFixer for further explanation on the refund strategy I'll use a real example, based on the Betfred offer.
Just to keep in mind, what happens to the calculator when you use it on refund mode, is that it creates a smaller Back bet 2. This, with the purpose of having a gap, that will allow you to get a direct profit if you win the 1st bet on Betfred (or any other bookmaker) directly, since in case on winning it, you will not get a refund. This is why the guide states, that if your 1st bet wins, you're done with the offer, and you will have your profit on the bookmaker.
So, for example:
Here, you $105 on betfred at odds of +300 will generate a total amount of $420, this minus the $105 you deposited, minus the 266.54 you lost on espnbet, makes a profit of $48.46. And that's it, your done with the offer.
On the other hand, if you win this bet on espnbet, you will have a total amount of $346.50  266.64 you deposited there and the $105 lost on betfred, leaves you with a temporary loss of $25.14. But now you will get the $105 on Betfred.
So we look for another event on the Dutcher to bet the freebet:
So here, if you win this bet of $105 (freebet) at odds of +350 on betfred you will make $367.5  $296.37 lost on draftkings, makes a profit of 71.13  25.14 (from the 1st bet) = your final profit would be $45.99
It's pretty much the same if the bet wins on draftkings. In this case you end up with 367.49  296.37 = 71.13 On Betfred you didn't lose anything since you used the freebet, but we still have to deduce the qualifying loss from the 1st bet, so 71.13  25.14 = $45.99

Thank you @carlos . That is very clear, so I will amend my statement on confusion with the numbers not adding up because the examples given in the Guide 4 strategy https://www.ninjabet.com/guide4 , don't have that adjusted lower refund amount in the example screengrabs, correct? $100 is the amount shown in both the Bet Amount and the Refund amount.
Or is there a reason for that, as well?

@KansaiFixer that's exactly the reason why, the example on the guide is set as if you would receive the refund as real money and not as freebet.
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