Why do higher-odds ValueBets swing so much more?
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Because they win less often. Lower odds win more frequently with smaller returns; higher odds win rarely but pay more when they land.
A ValueBet at −200 will win much more often than one at +300, even if both have positive EV. If you place many high-odds bets, expect more losing bets and bigger moves in your balance.
That doesn't make high odds wrong. It just means your staking has to survive longer losing runs, so keep those stakes modest.
Read more: Variance and Long-Term Results
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